The Product Decade

I don’t think there has ever been a better time to be a product person than right now.  In fact, I’m fully expecting the decade about to begin to be far and away the most productive in terms of innovation.

There are several reasons for this:

First, the devices – especially mobile, where we now have a critical mass of people all around the world with a device that is continuously connected to the Internet, location aware, and fits in your pocket.  I’m also very optimistic about the tablet as enabling an entirely new class of applications.

Second, the platforms – especially from Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and Salesforce.com, among others – enable a degree of power and reach beyond anything we’ve ever seen.  A good Facebook or iPhone application can quickly find itself with millions of users.

Third, the up-front costs – the barriers to trying out an idea have never been lower.   If you have an idea for a product or service, it used to take substantial amounts of money and time to get your idea in front of users and customers.  But no longer.   With great tools and platforms, and ready access to skilled talent around the world via services like Elance, we can take an idea from inspiration to live prototype for about the price of a nice vacation.  (And I fully expect many people will do just that – they’ll trade out their vacation to pursue a startup idea on the side).  One consequence of this is that I expect the VC’s to play a different role in the startup ecosystem going forward.  They’ll be valued more for their expertise and introductions than their money.

Finally, the techniques – over the past few years we’ve been working out the tools and techniques for rapidly exploring and testing ideas, discovering pivots, and optimizing design.  The result is that we can prove out an idea (one way or the other), or help an idea reach its potential, faster than ever before.

I still expect startups to be the primary environment for innovation, but I am  optimistic about the state of innovation inside large companies as well.  Don’t get me wrong, I fully expect to see many large companies get knocked from their pedestals because they dig in their heels, resist the changes in the industry and spend their energies trying to protect what they have.  This has always been the case, and I expect it always will be.

However, for those companies that embrace the opportunities that the changes bring, then we now have better techniques than ever for mitigating the risks to current business.  We can explore new ideas less expensively, and we can incorporate new approaches without putting existing revenue at risk.

I am grateful for the front-row seat that so many innovative companies have provided me as they push the envelope.  I have never been more excited about the future of product and innovation as I am now, and I hope you are too.